IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜.格奥尔基耶娃:全球经济正在复苏,但险境尚未摆脱

在今天召开的“外滩大会”上,IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜.格奥尔基耶娃发表致辞认为,全球经济正在复苏,但险境尚未摆脱。

以下是她的发言实录:

Nĭ hăo! It is a pleasure to join you at the INCLUSION Fintech Conference. I would like to thank Eric and Ant Group for giving me the opportunity to highlight two issues:

大家好!很高兴同大家一起参加外滩大会。感谢 Eric 和蚂蚁集团的邀请,接下来,我想重点谈两个问题。

One, the outlook for the world economy. And two, the critical role of financial inclusion in building a better and more resilient post-pandemic world.

一是世界经济的前景。二是金融普惠对于建立后疫情时代,更好更具韧性的世界的重要作用。

Let me start with the global economic outlook. After the initial shock, now we see incoming data telling us that the economy is in better shape than we thought in June, when the IMF published its last global economic forecast. It is less bad. We see some signs of recovery.

我想先谈一谈全球经济的前景。自经济受到冲击以来,从现有数据来看,经济状况比 IMF 在 6 月份发布的最新全球经济展望要好。实际情况没有想象中的那么糟糕,我们看到了一些经济复苏的迹象

Second quarter performance in China, and in many advanced economies, was better than anticipated—we saw improvement after stringent lockdowns were eased. We are now also seeing global trade slowly recovering.

中国以及许多发达经济体的第二季度表现均好于预期——我们看到经济状况随着严格封锁的放松得到了改善。目前来看,全球贸易也在逐渐恢复。

Why are we in a better place? Above all, because governments around the world threw out the rulebook to fight the biggest crisis in our lifetime. They took extraordinary fiscal measures—amounting to nearly $12 trillion—and central banks provided massive amounts of liquidity.

为什么说目前的境况已经得到改善呢?首先,各国政府推陈出新,对抗我们有生以来面临的最大危机。他们采取了一系列非常财政措施——投入资金共计近 12 万亿美元——央行提供了大量流动性。

These measures have provided vital lifelines to people and to companies—putting a floor under the world economy.

这些措施为民众和企业提供了关键生命线,同时也支撑起了世界经济。

We, at the IMF have done our part. We leaned into this crisis with full force. We have provided about $90 billion in financial support to 79 countries—since March. Our lending commitments have now reached about $270 billion. And we have an additional $730 billion in lending capacity to serve our member countries in need.

IMF 也积极参与其中,倾尽全力对抗此次危机。从 3 月至今,我们已向 79 个国家提供了约 900 亿美元的资金支持。我们的贷款承诺现已达到约 2,700 亿美元。此外,我们还有 7,300 亿美元的额外贷款能力,能够为需要支持的成员国提供帮助。

Continued support from governments and multilateral organizations remains critical. Even as the world has learned to function during the pandemic; even as we are hopeful to have a vaccine; one thing is clear: we are not out of the woods yet.

来自各国政府和多边组织的持续支持仍然至关重要。即使各国已经知道如何在疫情期间维持运转,即使我们有希望开发出疫苗,但仍然要明确这一点:我们还没有脱离险境

There is tremendous uncertainty around the path of this crisis. The outlook for emerging markets and developing economies, other than China, remains precarious. And across all countries, growth prospects are affected by economic scarring, including from job losses and higher inequality.

这场危机的发展趋势存在巨大的不确定性。除中国以外,新兴市场和发展中经济体的前景仍然不明朗。所有国家的增长前景都会受到经济疤痕的影响,包括失业和更严重的不平等现象。

That takes me to my second point, the importance of financial inclusion to advance a fairer, faster and smarter recovery. While the outlook is uncertain, what is certain is now we have the opportunity to act.

这就引出了我想探讨的第二个问题,金融普惠对推进更公平、更快速和更智慧的复苏的重要性。虽然前景存在不确定性,但可以肯定的是,我们现在就有机会采取行动。

And as the Chinese proverb says, “Opportunity knocks but once.”

中国有句谚语叫做”机不可失,时不再来”。

Seizing opportunities to improve financial access was already a priority for countries worldwide before the pandemic.

在疫情暴发之前,抓住机会改善金融服务普及性已经成为世界各国的头等大事。

But it is even more urgent now, because groups that already lack access are being hit particularly hard by COVID-19. This includes lower-income households, small businesses, and women. And a new study by the IMF shows that even before the onset of COVID, digital financial services were the main driver of financial inclusion.

但目前,这项任务变得更加紧迫,因为新冠疫情对无法获得金融服务的群体造成了严重打击。这其中包括低收入家庭、小微企业和妇女。IMF 的一项最新研究表明,即使在新冠疫情暴发之前,数字金融服务也是金融普惠的主要驱动因素。

So let’s look at how inclusion and fintech can make the recovery fairer, speedier, and smarter—how financial inclusion helps people to connect to opportunities and prevents slipping into poverty.

我们来看看普惠和金融科技如何推动更公平、更快速更智慧的经济复苏——金融普惠如何帮助人们抓住机遇、避免陷入贫困

First, fairness. IMF research shows that increasing access to finance goes hand-in-hand with reducing income inequality and increasing growth. Thelargest reductions in inequality can be achieved when women are provided access to finance.

首先是公平。IMF 的研究表明,改善金融服务普及性、减少收入不平等现象、推动经济增长三者相辅相成。向妇女提供金融服务的同时,可以最大限度地减少不平等现象。

Second: inclusion is not just morally right, supported by fintech, inclusion can speed up the recovery.

第二,普惠不仅符合道德标准,更可以在金融科技的支持下,加速经济复苏。

Digital financial services enable governments to quickly expand social safety nets. These payments not only help unemployed people, they put money in their hands and speed up the recovery because they spend the money in their communities and support businesses. Fintech also enables direct payments. They increase transparency. They reduce the risk of corruption, and they reduce contact, which helps to fight the pandemic.

数字金融服务能帮助政府迅速扩大社会保障体系。数字金融服务不仅能帮助失业人员,还能让他们把钱放在自己的口袋里,在自己所在的社区中消费,为企业提供支持,进而加快经济复苏。金融科技还实现了直接支付,提高了透明度。金融科技还降低了腐败风险,减少了人际接触,有助于抗击疫情。

Third, inclusion will facilitate a smarter transformation of our economies.

第三,普惠将推动更智能的经济转型

Fintech is helping to slow the spread of COVID-19. It has made contactless and cashless transactions very popular and very useful. And digital payments services are expanding into digital lending, developing cheaper and more efficient ways to extend credit to hard-to-reach borrowers.

金融科技有助于缓解新冠肺炎的传播。非接触式交易和无现金交易因此大受欢迎,并且非常实用。数字支付服务正在向数字贷款领域扩展,通过开发更经济有效的解决方案,为难以获取贷款渠道的人群提供信贷支持。

As the fintech sector works to deliver these benefits, we manage the risks better and we expand the opportunities faster. Government actions will be critical to ensure financial stability, and to avoid deepening digital divides.

随着金融科技在上述各个方面不断发挥实效,我们能够更好地控制风险,更快地创造发展机会。政府行动对于确保金融稳定和避免加深数字鸿沟至关重要。

Technology can enable a new era of shared prosperity if countries provide the right support. So what can they do? They can invest in access to digital infrastructure. They can invest in people and improve financial and digital literacy; and address biases in data that exclude the most vulnerable. And they can invest in the soft measures that enhance competition in the industry to provide services at the lowest cost.

如果各国政府能够提供有效支持,科技的发展将开启共享繁荣的新时代。那么,他们能做些什么呢?他们可以投资建设数字基础设施;可以投资培养人才,提高人们的金融素养和数字科技素养;可以消除数据偏见,避免弱势群体被挡在机会的门外;还可以投资一系列软措施,促进行业竞争,以最低成本提供最优服务。

If we act wisely now, we can realize fintech’s enormous potential.

如果我们能及时采取明智行动,就可以发挥出金融科技的巨大潜力。

Together, we can make sure that people in poverty hear the knock of opportunity.

我们一同努力,让陷入贫困的人们也能听到机会敲门的声音。

Let’s make that happen. Xièxiè.

让我们齐心协力。谢谢。

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